U.S. Rep. Jeff Hurd leads in all public polls, holds a firm fundraising advantage, and is the incumbent candidate in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District race. But, his seat may not be as secure as it appears.
Just last Wednesday, Hurd's seat was added to the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of “districts in play.” A July poll commissioned by Romero’s campaign and conducted by Keating Research shows Romero just 1 percentage point behind Hurd.
Colorado Mesa University political science professor Justin Gollob said in a statement to The Durango Herald that “on balance, the advantage goes to Rep. Hurd.” Although, he noted that questions concerning anti-incumbent sentiment, impacts from the presidency, and shifts in domestic and international politics could all interfere with that balance.
Gollob says Hurd has an advantage in the race because Colorado’s 3rd District is generally more conservative and Republican, incumbents generally win reelection at a higher rate, and Hurd has a fundraising advantage. Hurd has $1,760,849 in cash on hand compared to Romero’s $84,208, according to finance reports as of June 30.
Public polling has consistently placed Hurd five to 10 points ahead of Romero, but the Romero-commissioned poll conducted at the end of July broke from that. The poll surveyed 500 likely November 2026 voters and placed Romero one point behind Hurd with a 4.4-point margin of error, well within the poll’s statistical tie.
Another signal that Hurd may face a challenging race is that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Hurd’s seat to the list of “districts in play” on Aug. 5. This means the party believes his seat is vulnerable and Romero will receive candidate guidance and messaging support from the national group, although not financial support, at least yet.
This comes after Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert moved from CD3 to CD4, a more conservative-leaning district, after Democrat Adam Frisch came within hundreds votes of unseating her. Republicans have held CD3’s seat since 2011, but before then it has shifted between Republican and Democratic representation.
Democrats need to flip just three seats to take the majority in the House of Representatives, but only time will tell if Hurd’s could be one of them.
Norah Aycock is an intern for The Durango Herald and a student at American University in Washington, D.C. She can be reached at naycock@durangoherald.com.
