UTE MOUNTAIN UTE RESERVATION – Michael Vicenti did quick mental math while driving his pickup past acre after acre at the Ute Mountain Ute Farm and Ranch, trying to tally the impact of a record dry winter.
“I believe we’re going to have maybe 900 fields that are fallowed,” he said.
The tribe’s Farm and Ranch Enterprise expects to receive less than 14% of its usual water supply this year – and it isn’t alone. After the worst winter on record ended with a record heat wave in March, many farmers and ranchers in Colorado are headed into the summer tightening their belts and searching for any extra drop of water they can find.
At the Farm and Ranch, some of the fields were brown; on others, cattle grazed. The green plants on a few fields would soon be dormant, Vicenti said. Crews won’t be able to water them.
“We’re just going to have to make the best of it,” Vicenti said. “According to our calculations, we’ll have enough water until June. That’s it.”
The state’s snowpack, a vital water supply for Coloradans and communities in 19 downstream states, took a nosedive in early April. Cooler temperatures and a few storms helped slow the rapid melt, but it will be difficult for the snowpack to rebound before spring ends, climate experts said during a Water Conditions Monitoring Committee meeting last week.
About 98% of Colorado was experiencing some level of drought as of Tuesday, with more than half the state falling in the two worst drought categories identified by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Reservoirs in most areas can help cushion the brunt of drought conditions. Statewide reservoirs were at 89% of the norm, and most areas of Colorado had a normal amount of water storage heading into the summer. Southwestern Colorado and parts of the Eastern Plains, including Kit Carson, Cheyenne and Kiowa counties, were the exceptions, each with less than average water supplies in reservoirs.
In response, Coloradans jumped into action. Municipal providers were already talking about drought watering restrictions in April, a time when the snowpack normally peaks.
Emergency managers were discussing fire restrictions. Boaters and rafters were out on rivers early, knowing higher flows won’t last.
Farmers and ranchers expect heavy impacts from the lack of water. Some are reducing their herds and planning to grow less food and hay. Others hope to avoid laying off workers.
“The livelihoods of many, many people are on the line here,” said Mike Bartolo, a retired vegetable crop specialist in southeastern Colorado. “It’s not a matter of, ‘I’m not going to be able to water my lawn two days out of the week.’ I hope people recognize this is a pretty dire situation for rural Colorado.”
Bartolo can see signs of drought in the rhythms of his community.
Canals that normally deliver very senior water rights are dry or reduced to a trickle. This time of year usually comes with urgency as trucks deliver seed and farmers steer tractors across their fields.
But this year, it’s quiet.
“You typically see a sense of optimism and a lot of activity. It’s almost eerily quiet,” said Bartolo, who worked for Colorado State University Extension. “This massive uncertainty, it’s overwhelming.”
The Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado had 9% of its normal snowpack as of Tuesday. Most areas were experiencing severe, extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
That’s combined with other challenges this year, including high fuel and fertilizer prices. The livestock and ranching industries, which are economically tied to the region’s cropland, are under stress because of the lack of rain on the prairies, Bartolo said.
“To have that at the beginning of the season is unprecedented and uncharted territory,” he said. “When added onto these existing stresses … it’s very difficult to imagine how we’re going to come out of this unscathed.”
The Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District said it would provide 80% of its usual water supply this year, spokesperson Jeff Stahla said.
The district delivers water from the Western Slope across the mountains to water utilities, communities, farms and ranches in northeastern Colorado. The water goes to about 1.1 million people and about 615,000 irrigated acres.
The district can deliver up to 310,000 acre-feet of water in a year. One acre-foot provides enough water to cover a one-acre field in a foot of water.
Typically, the district’s board allocates about 70% of the full supply, Stahla said. In some dry years, such as 2012, the district has been able to deliver its full supply.
This year’s water supply comes mainly from snowpack in previous years, such as 2023 through 2025, not this year’s snowpack, he said.
“Going into this year, we actually had more than average water stored,” Stahla said. “That’ll certainly change next year.”
That’s helpful news for Northern Water’s customers, but local conditions will vary based on each community’s mix of water sources.
The snowpack in northern Colorado hovered between 22% of normal in the Colorado River’s headwaters near Grand Lake and 33% of the norm in the Laramie and North Platte river basins. The South Platte River Basin’s snowpack, which extends across the Denver area and northeastern Colorado, was at 25% of the 30-year norm as of Tuesday.
Northwestern Colorado is shaded a deeper red than other areas of the state on the U.S. Drought Monitor’s maps, marking exceptional drought characterized by large agricultural and recreational economic losses.
In that region, runoff is over, said Andy Rossi, general manager of the Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District in northwestern Colorado.
Agricultural producers are making livestock and irrigation management decisions, including raising smaller herds, based on summer forecasts.
“They’re expecting the worst and hoping for a little relief,” Rossi said.
As of mid-April, Rossi expected neither of the district’s reservoirs, Yamcolo and Stagecoach, to fill this year. Stagecoach has less demand and can temporarily share extra water with downstream irrigators and municipalities in extremely dry years like this one.
Nearly all of Yamcolo Reservoir’s water is for agriculture, and its water is delivered early and fast. The reservoir was 60% full in mid-April, and irrigators expected to receive about 60% of their normal supply.
“It’s not uncommon for all of those supplies to be depleted every year,” Rossi said. “It can take us two or three good winters to recover that reservoir.”
Diverters with more recent, junior water rights will likely be shut off in the next few weeks, he said. Senior water users will rely on what little stored water they have and will burn through it quickly.
Colorado’s water is distributed on a “first in time, first in right” basis, meaning the oldest water rights have first priority in dry years while more recent rights are cut off early.
Summer monsoons and a super El Niño in the forecast could help, but they’re too uncertain, Rossi said, noting it would be irresponsible to base water management decisions on the forecast.
“Our irrigation season, as far as a stored water standpoint, is going to be fairly quick,” he said.
The Farm and Ranch Enterprise spans 7,700 acres just west of Cortez in Southwest Colorado, where the snowpack was about 11% of the 30-year norm as of Tuesday.
As the farm’s general manager, Simon Martinez turned to a map on the wall as he talked about how much water the Ute Mountain Ute Farm and Ranch expects to receive this year. He blocked off section after section with his hand, indicating which portions of the farm would be taken out of production.
“All we kept is this,” he said, covering everything but the top left corner of the map, dubbed the 4,000 block.
The tribe’s agricultural enterprise, one of the largest farms in the state, is no stranger to deep cuts to its water supply. As one of the more junior users downstream from McPhee Reservoir, it has received half, a third and just 10% of its normal supply in recent dry years.
Martinez spent days in mid-April poring over scenarios for how to manage the business this year. He debated how many acres of alfalfa and blue corn to plant and whether to change crop rotations.
They needed food for their cattle, so they will keep some triticale in production, he said. He searched for grants and pored over the accounting books.
His cellphone rang. He told the farm’s accountant he would send more information about finances, grants and water allocation this week.
“I will send you the three scenarios. We’re going to go with scenario No. 2, and then we’ll be able to put some financials together,” Martinez said.
The Farm and Ranch plans to fallow more than 6,000 acres, or more than nine square miles. That will hurt jobs, Martinez said. Even though the fields still need maintenance to keep weeds from taking over, watering a few fields doesn’t require five irrigators – it takes three.
“What this has affected is hours: trying to keep as many people employed with the minimal amount of hours they can get to keep their benefits,” Martinez said.
He’s cutting costs where he can. The farm added small hydropower units to generate electricity using the flow of irrigation water, which helps provide power and cut utility expenses. Martinez may add solar panels for the same reason and is building a new reservoir to help with water supplies in deep drought years like this one.
He’s also looking into boutique markets, such as producing more profitable ancient grains on less acreage.
“Our water bill last year was over $700,000 for half of our water allocation,” Martinez said. “This year it’s going to be the same amount with only 13% to 14% of our water. That’s a hard pill to swallow.”
When Congress approved McPhee Reservoir in 1968, lawmakers didn’t plan for a 25-year drought, Martinez said. They assumed the dam would always be full and everyone would get their water.
That’s not what happened. And it’s hurting the business and the people who depend on it for their income.
“I have really good people around that shine in their areas of expertise,” Martinez said. “I’m blessed to be able to have them around to help make those decisions. But the water issue’s the biggest one. What can you do with 3,500 acre-feet when you were hoping you’d have 20,000?”
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