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Poll: CD2 race extremely close a year ahead of voting

A “Vote Here” sign at the Otero County Fairgrounds in Alamogordo. (Nicole Maxwell/NM Political Report)
Democrat Gabe Vasquez narrowly trails Republican Yvette Herrell

As New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District looks like it will be a rematch of the 2022 race, incumbent Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, very narrowly trails former U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell, a Republican.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KOB-TV, found that 46% of likely voters would vote for Herrell and 45% would vote for Vasquez. That leaves 9% who are currently, over a year from the start of voting, undecided.

A large swath of those surveyed did not have opinions on Herrell or Vasquez. When asked if they favored the candidates, 39% said they held a favorable opinion of Herrell, with 32% saying unfavorable and 23% saying neutral, with 8% saying no opinion. Meanwhile, 33% said they have a favorable opinion of Vasquez, with 29% who said they held an unfavorable opinion. Another 28% said they had a neutral opinion and 11% said they had no opinion.

In 2022, Vasquez defeated Herrell by just 0.8 percentage points. Herrell was running in her third consecutive election for the same seat, narrowly losing in 2018 to Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and winning against Torres Small in 2020.

SurveyUSA polled 541 likely voters in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. SurveyUSA conducted the poll between Sept. 6 and 12.