Warm and dry conditions have dominated much of the West, including Southwest Colorado, heading into winter.
But precipitation is expected to return with a storm arriving on Christmas Eve. Just how much moisture will be carried into the region remains uncertain, said Braeden Winters, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
Regardless, snow is in the forecast.
The San Juan Mountains have the best chance for widespread snowfall, while warm lower elevations could see rain instead.
“Christmas Eve and Christmas is shaping up to be our next best chance of a widespread snow event,” Winters said. “I’m not really sure how far down onto the slopes it’ll get ‒ including if it’ll get down to Durango ‒ but the San Juans in general will have a better shot at getting snow during the midweek period than we’ve been seeing recently.”
Fort Lewis College meteorology professor Jon Harvey agreed, saying the warm air associated with the storm means snow levels will mostly stay high.
“This storm might be one of those relatively warm ones that people sometimes call Pineapple Express, with relatively warm, humid air,” he said. “Purgatory will get maybe a little bit denser snow, whereas the high passes can still get some fluffy powder.”
Mild temperatures and sparse snowfall in November and December aren’t unusual, Harvey said. This is a La Niña year, after all, which pushes the jet stream farther north, and with it moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
“La Niña winters have a statistical push toward wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest and drier winters in the desert Southwest,” he said. “It’s been persistent and it seems really extreme because it is. We’re way above normal temperatures. However, if you really get in and look at the snowpack data from other years and some of the temperature records from past years, to have this pattern in December is really not that uncommon.”
Harvey cited National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data tracking days above 50 degrees at Durango-La Plata County Airport since 1996. Over that 29-year period, six years had warmer November through December stretches, he said.
He said past winters with slow starts, such as 2017 and 2019, ended up rebounding with above-average snowpack in the San Juan Mountains, according to Natural Resource Conservation Service data.
“There are some years not that far back in history which became a really good snow year and started off really poorly,” Harvey said. “We had a really long dry spell in November and December and we were kind of stuck under the jet stream like we are right now. So I actually have a lot of hope still for this year.”
Snow remains in the forecast, at least for the mountains. Winters urged holiday travelers crossing mountain passes to be ready for winter conditions.
“It’s always best to stay up to date with the forecast,” Winters said. “Have some backup plans in case delays might happen, whether you’re traveling by road or flying.”
sedmondson@durangoherald.com
