The late arrival of monsoonal rains weakened the Stoner Mesa Fire’s most vigorous flames this weekend, while dense canopies of mixed conifer have provided an umbrella to the most stubborn of flames down in the Stoner Creek drainage.
“As a result, dry fuels under the canopy have allowed the fire to remain more active, particularly along slopes and sheltered areas,” read a news release sent out by fire officials Monday morning.
Additional rains are expected all week.
With rainfall lingering in the area, much of the Stoner Mesa Fire – scorched at over 10,200 acres and 42% contained as of Monday – has been reduced to smoldering and creeping flames across the rugged landscape. Firefighters continue to build lines to stay on top of any spread, but the better-late-than-never monsoon provides some useful aid.
“We've got this monsoonal high pressure system that's in place right over the Four Corners region,” said Scott Stearns, incident meteorologist for the Stoner Mesa Fire during a Aug. 24 meeting at the Dolores Community Center. “It was a little bit late getting here obviously this year, but now that it's set in, that moisture is continuing to kind of move into the area.”
More rain is expected for the week, inviting layers of moisture to the area, with high chances Monday through Wednesday each at roughly one-fourth of an inch, according to forecasts by the National Weather Service alongside outlooks made by Stearns.
Thursday through Sunday rainfall is forecast with lower chances of rain and accompanying smaller inches of precipitation below one-tenth of an inch. Low winds and modest temperatures too are likely to bring favorable conditions for a slower fire, Stearns said.
With rains, however, come greater possibility of lighting strikes, according to Stearns’s forecast. Stearns said that the high chance of lightning created some concern with new flames cropping up in the area.
Precipitation can pose additional cautions for firefighters.
“Rain can make forest roads slick and unstable, so traffic on Forest Service roads has been minimized to reduce safety risks for firefighters and the public,” reads Monday’s press release.
The moisture will not stay forever, but is likely to help, Stearns said.
“At some point as we get into next weekend and beyond, it looks like maybe we will dry back out,” said Stearns. “But it not gonna be as dry as it was even a couple weeks ago.”
Air quality conditions are also anticipated to improve due to the moisture, according to a smoke outlook map from fire officials.
“We’ve already seen the positive effects of getting some moisture on the fire,” said air resource adviser Andrew Schauer during the Aug. 23 meeting in Dolores. “A lot less smoke production now than what we were seeing even three, four days ago.”
The southwest Colorado region is broadly forecast to have primarily Good AQI levels ranging into some periods of Moderate in the coming days.
County Road 38 between Colorado Highway 145 and Dunton will likely remain at Good levels, while Colorado 145 north of Stoner toward Rico may have periods of “moderate” quality with and average of “good” quality.
The Stoner area down to Colorado 145, however, will likely remain the most impacted, receiving “unhealthy” levels morning and nights while reaching to “good” during the day.
Air quality index levels in Dolores are unlikely to surpass “moderate.”
