An approaching winter storm hit the area Thursday and is expected to continue through the weekend, bringing fresh snowfall on Christmas Day to towns in higher elevation towns including Dolores and Rico and 2 to 3 feet of snow in the San Juan Mountains.
But a white Christmas for Cortez is less likely, with rain falling instead because of warmer temperatures.
A winter storm warning has been issued for the San Juan Mountains from 11 a.m. Thursday to 11 a.m. Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.
Mountain passes could see 10 to 15 inches by Friday and Saturday, with 2 to 3 feet possible on the higher peaks, said weather service meteorologist Erin Walker.
Heavy snow was expected mainly above 9,000 feet.
Thursday, the Colorado Avalanche information Center issued an avalanche watch for the northern and southern San Juan Mountains. The risk of avalanches was raised to “high,” Level 4 out of five levels.
A crash Thursday night on U.S. Highway 160/491 south of Towaoc briefly closed the highway near mile marker 25. An alert from the Montezuma County Sheriff’s office listed the crash as “minor,” with “no known threat to life.”
Snowfall began to fall Thursday in the mountains and was expected to intensify Thursday night and Friday, dropping 24 to 30 inches by Saturday afternoon at Molas Pass, on U.S. Highway 550 south of Silverton.
“There are a series of storms rolling through Western Colorado and the Four Corners,” Walker said. “In the lower valleys, not all the moisture will fall as snow.”
There is a 40% chance of rain and snow in Cortez Thursday, and a 70% to 80% chance of rain and snow Friday, said Jim Andrus, Cortez weather observer.
Rain could turn to snow Friday night, but warmer day temperatures might not allow it to accumulate.
“The chance for a white Christmas in Cortez is still uncertain,” Andrus said.
Cortez annual precipitation is likely to hit the normal average for the year, he said.
As of Dec. 22, Cortez had seen 11.14 inches of precipitation for the year, or 94% of the normal 11.79 inches.
December has seen 1.21 inches of precipitation, or 136% of normal.
“Four days of precipitation coming up will add to those totals,” Andrus said.
Walker said the eight-to-14-day forecast model shows above average precipitation for the Four Corners, and an experimental forecast for three to four weeks shows the same.
Total snowfall for the winter in the Dolores and San Miguel basins is 89% of normal, according to Snotel data stations managed by the National Resources Conservation Service.
jmimiaga@the-journal.com
