The results of a survey to measure voter support of a proposed 1.9% sales tax in Montezuma County conclude that “an organized, well-funded voter education campaign” could lead to approval in the November election.

The county does not have a sales tax. County commissioners are considering putting the question on the November ballot and hired a firm to conduct a survey.

Magellan Strategies conducted an online and telephone survey of 1,199 registered voters in the county during November and December.

The survey included information about why Montezuma County is considering the ballot measure and asked voters whether they would be more or less likely to support it after reading and hearing statements on its use and need.

The 1.9% county sales tax is estimated to raise $6 million annually and would cost 19 cents on a $10 purchase of taxable items or services.

The survey states the county would use the sales tax to pay for new unfunded mandates from the state and to maintain essential county services and programs affected by increasing operation costs and falling tax revenues from property and the oil and gas sector.

According to survey results, when informed on why the sales tax was needed 50% of survey respondents said they would likely reject it, and 45% would likely approve it. Five percent were undecided.

Republicans were 63% against and Democrats were 69% in favor.

When not informed of the sales tax need and use, 55% of those surveyed would likely reject it, and 37% would likely approve it. Eight percent were undecided.

By political party, 70% of Republicans opposed the tax and 69% of Democrats supported it.

Before taking the informed ballot test to approve or reject the measure, survey takers responded to eight questions about the tax’s proposed use, need and benefits, and were asked how they would vote knowing the information.

The questions and results were:

1. A sales tax would generate county revenue from purchases and services made by tourists visiting Mesa Verde National Park.

Response: Knowing this information, 57% were more likely to vote yes and 37% more likely to vote no.

2. Montezuma County property owners currently bear the burden of funding 25% of the county budget through their residential and commercial property taxes. A 1.9% county sales tax would also be paid by tourists and nonresidents of the county, helping to diversify county revenue sources.

Response: Knowing this information, 56% were more likely to vote yes and 38% more likely to vote no, with 6% undecided.

3. A few examples of how the cost of providing essential county services to residents has increased include: higher costs for fuel and parts for county vehicles, higher costs for food for senior services and increased costs at the jail.

Response: Knowing this information, 46% would likely vote yes, and 44% would likely vote no, with 6% undecided.

4. Funding from a 1.9% county sales tax is needed to pay for additional law enforcement officers, the county legal system, and to address the cost of an unfunded public safety mandate requiring law enforcement body cameras passed by the state legislature this year.

Response: Knowing this information, 45% would likely vote yes, and 44% would likely vote no, with 10% undecided.

5. In addition to reduced residential and commercial property assessment rates, county revenue has seen declines because of a significant drop in production at Kinder Morgan, which provides more than 30% of county tax revenues.

Response: Knowing this information 43% would likely vote yes and 46% would likely vote no, with 11% undecided.

6. When presented with a chart showing increased costs of county essential services since 2015, 43% were more likely to vote yes, and 44% were more likely to vote no, with 13% undecided.

7. Montezuma County faces a drop in revenue due to the legislature’s passage of Senate Bill 21-293, which reduces assessment rates for single and multifamily homes from 7.15% to 6.95%, and commercial property rates from 29% to 26.4%.

Response: Knowing this information 41% were more likely to vote yes, and 46% were more likely to vote no, with 13% undecided.

8. Unfortunately, the cost of providing essential county services to residents and visitors has increased. Furthermore, the costs of unfunded mandates from the state legislature have put the county budget under strain. This has forced the county to consider the creation of a 1.9% sales tax.

Response: Knowing this information 40% were more likely to vote yes, and 48% more likely to vote no, with 12% undecided.

On the informed ballot question, 50% of voters said they would vote to reject the sales tax. When asked why, answers included: taxes are already too high, too much government waste, not the right time, bad economic conditions, and county should live with what it already has.

“I refuse to pay any more in taxes! I am already being taxed and am barely making it as is. Budget what is being spent already! That’s what I’m expected to do with my wages,” stated a Republican male, age 25-34.

“The county has enough money. Reduce the waste and frivolous services instead,” stated a Democrat male, age 55-64.

On the informed ballot question, 45% said they would approve the sales tax. When asked why, answers included: the county’s need for important services, awareness that costs are going up and revenue is declining, and they like that part of the sales tax will be paid for by tourists and nonresidents.

“The money for a strong county Government has to come from somewhere. The alarming drop in production by Kinder Morgan is enough to sway me to vote yes,” stated a Republican male, age 45-54.

“We need the funds from somewhere, and I would rather it be a sales tax than property taxes. I would like to see limits in place or a timeline for renewal of the tax rate,” stated an unaffiliated man, age 35-44.

Magellan Strategies offered final thoughts and conclusions on the survey results.

It said that “even though support on the informed ballot test falls short of 50% approval, the survey results show a path to success next November assuming an organized, well-funded voter education campaign.”

It notes that voter support for a 1.9% county sales tax moves from 37% support to 45% support after the message testing.

Surveyors noted that the “top reasons why voters would vote no and reject a 1.9% county sales tax are that taxes are already too high and there is too much government waste. Some voters also mentioned that now is not the right time, with so many people struggling economically.”

The overall survey responses have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.76% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey results were weighted to be representative of the voter turnout demographics of a midterm election.

jmimiaga@the-journal.com