Cortez saw 8% of its normal precipitation in May, setting the stage for extreme fire conditions in June.
“A horrendous dearth of precipitation for May rendered all 31 May days into one long May Daze monthlong episode instead,” Jim Andrus, local weather spotter, wrote in his monthly report. “The result is a continuing pattern of severe to extreme drought over Montezuma County and even worse drought elsewhere in Western Colorado and in other states as well.”
Lucas Boyer, National Weather Service forecaster, concurred, calling May precipitation “pretty abysmal.” Andrus noted that the snowfall water equivalent in the Dolores Basin dwindled to 3% of normal.
High winds, hot weather and low humidity kicked off the second week of June. The conditions spurred red flag warnings for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in Southwest Colorado, threatening extreme fire conditions. The NWS released a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday.
“We're going through an extended period of low relative humidity and gusty afternoon winds which are coupled with critically receptive fuels that’s leading to red flag conditions multiple days in a row,” Boyer said.
While conditions ease Thursday evening, Southwest Colorado should not anticipate a particularly long reprieve.
“Fire weather is here to stay for the Four Corners,” Boyer said, noting projected highs in the 90s this weekend. “It's a June pattern that's hard to shake.”
Andrus, in his analysis, noted that the likelihood of an El Niño event this year might alleviate some of Southwest Colorado’s water stresses. The climate pattern typically brings higher precipitation to southern areas of the state.
“Long term climatology says that at some point this summer the monsoons will start rolling in and we'll get some showers,” Boyer said, clarifying that these predictions account for large scale weather changes and do not guarantee local ones. “We can't attach any positive or negative thing to Southwest Colorado with El Niño.”
The near-term predictions, Boyer added, point to hot and dry weather with some moisture arriving farther out in the summer.
“With our seasonal, summer outlook, it's definitely greater chances that we're going to be above normal warmth with some indication of the monsoons working in here over the summer,” Boyer said.
avanderveen@the-journal.com
