After soaking rain and a stretch of chilly mornings in October, Southwest Colorado will shift toward warmer and drier weather in November.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks, discussed by National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Handel, reflect the influence of La Niña conditions – a weak tropical cycle that typically brings warmer, drier winters to the Southwest.
“For November, we’re tilting the odds toward above-normal temperatures for southwestern Colorado,” Handel said, adding that the region carries “about a 40-to-50% chance” of being warmer than normal.
Precipitation predictions, Handel said, are only “slightly above a 33% chance of below-normal precipitation,” signaling drier conditions in NOAA predictive models with limited confidence.
“These are probabilities,” he said. “It's important for people to know that this is a representation of what we think is the most likely category for the mean temperature for the month as a whole.”
Handel added: “You could still have cold snaps during the month.”
Main statistics guiding the monthly forecast include La Niña conditions, the Madden-Julian Oscillation – known as the shifting clusters of tropical thunderstorms that affect where high and low pressure systems form – as well as 15-year trends. The Climate Prediction Center also runs computer simulations modeling how the atmosphere might behave under projected conditions.
“We don’t have the skill that far out to predict a particular day,” Handel said, noting that updated outlooks will be released Oct. 31.
Local weather spotter Jim Andrus said residents should distinguish between variations, episodes and trends. He said the Cortez climate is unique, sitting between a wet temperate zone to the north and the dry subtropical high to the south – a setup that can either block or gather storms.
Drawing on decades of weather recorded for NWS, Andrus said average annual precipitation has declined over successive 30-year periods. Those numbers include 13.21 inches (1971-2000), 12.57 inches (1981-2010) and 10.69 inches (1991-2020).
Andrus makes a distinction: The weather changes seasonally and annually. In contrast, the climate has long-term shifts, which can be tracked through decadeslong data or trends.
“We are getting drier,” he said, adding how thinner snowpacks leave less irrigation water and shorter ski seasons. “People think, ‘Well, I just got a snowstorm – global warming is not happening.’ That’s a variation, an individual variation.”
Andrus noted roughly 1½ inches of rain in Cortez this month from remnants of Pacific tropical moisture was a short “episode” that offered brief relief but “doesn’t change the larger picture.”
Handel said even in a dry-leaning month, “one or two storms that coincide with a cold air outbreak can still produce decent snowfall,” especially in the transition zone that covers southwest Colorado.
He said during La Niña winters, the northwestern region of Colorado often sees more snow, while the state’s southeastern parts get less, with Southwest Colorado sitting in between – a transition zone where snowfall can swing either way.
Handel emphasized local variation and being mindful of microclimates, with the mountains and valleys being so different within a small region.
“Your local weather forecast office based in Grand Junction is really the expert as far as tailoring these national forecasts into local effects for your region specifically,” he said.
