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Lauren Boebert has massive lead in Republican primary, poll shows

40% of those polled said they would vote for the congresswoman on June 25
Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., speaks outside the hush money criminal case of former President Donald Trump in New York on May 16. (Ted Shaffrey/Associated Press file)

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert is the clear front-runner in the six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District as voters begin receiving their ballots, according to a new poll.

Forty percent of those polled said they would vote for Boebert in the June 25 primary, while 5% said they would vote for businessman Peter Yu; 4% each said they would vote for state Rep. Richard Holtorf, former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg and conservative commentator Deborah Flora; and 3% said they would vote for state Rep. Mike Lynch.

Forty percent said they were unsure of who they would vote for in the primary, which will likely determine who voters in the highly Republican 4th District send to Congress in November.

The poll was conducted and funded by Florida-based Kaplan Strategies on May 31 among registered Republican and unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the Republican primary in the 4th District. It had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

Kaplan Strategies said Boebert’s big lead can be explained by her name ID.

“With the primary less than a month away, the name recognition for all of her opponents sits at or below 54%,” the pollster said in a memo.

Boebert is effectively the only candidate in the 4th District Republican primary running TV ads as part of her campaign. The rest of the field hasn’t raised enough money to compete with her big war chest.

The large primary field in the 4th District is also likely benefiting Boebert. With so many opponents, the anti-Boebert vote is split, giving her the chance to win the race without a majority of the vote.

Forty-seven percent of those polled said they have a favorable view of Boebert, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. That’s despite her year of personal controversies.

Boebert currently represents Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, which spans the Western Slope into Pueblo and southeastern Colorado. But she switched her reelection campaign to the 4th District, which is more favorable to Republicans, last year to improve her chances of securing another term in Congress. She won by 546 votes in the 3rd District in 2022, a narrow margin best explained by her controversial behavior in Congress.

The 4th District sweeps across the Eastern Plains into Douglas County and Loveland. U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, who used to represent the district, won his last two elections by 23 percentage points.

There are three Democrats vying for their party’s nomination in the 4th District on June 25, but national Democratic groups are mostly ignoring the race because they believe it’s a lost cause.

The Colorado Sun is a reader-supported, nonpartisan news organization dedicated to covering Colorado issues. To learn more, go to coloradosun.com.