Apart from a smattering of light rain storms in recent weeks, the downpours of the monsoons have failed to appear in and around Durango. Looking ahead into August, odds are they will remain elusive.
According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, La Plata County is almost evenly split between severe and moderate drought. Those conditions are likely to persist into the coming weeks, according to meteorologist Kris Sanders.
“The Climate Prediction Center does a six to 10 day precipitation outlook, and they have chances of below normal precipitation through that period,” Sanders said. “So unfortunately, it looks like the pattern will continue. There’s just no signal of the monsoon really taking hold.”
Sanders said a high-pressure ridge has remained stubbornly situated over the Southern Plains, New Mexico and Texas. That, he said, has shunted the storm track, a path that rain storms follow through the atmosphere, over Northern Colorado.
But, Sanders said, when a storm moves from west to east on that storm track, dry air blows in from the west. Whenever significant moisture was forecast over the past several weeks, that dry air was sucked into the area instead, pushing the storms out of the area. That, he said, is why Durango has remained so hot and dry, even with forecasts that promised rain.
“Every time a weather system moves across the north, it is going to bring in that dry air,” he said. “It’s been winning out over the moisture we’ve been getting.”
Sanders said that pattern will likely continue into the foreseeable future. The National Weather Service’s climate outlook for the United States between August and October predicts that the Southwest will see above-average temperatures with below-average precipitation.
Cindy Howard, public information officer for the Elkhorn Fire, said those dry conditions are going to increase fire danger.
“The extended outlook is still pretty high temps and low relative humidities,” she said. “The most critical fire day will be on Friday, with gusts of 25 mph or more, so potential for red flag conditions.”
Howard said that La Plata County and the U.S. Forest Service are expecting fire danger to increase in the coming days and weeks. The forecast, she said, points to high winds and temperatures with little chance for precipitation. Because of that, she said, it is important for residents to be extra diligent not to start any new forest fires.
“With the potential for red flag conditions, we are asking the public to avoid any new sparks or any new fire starts,” she said. “Conditions where fire growth can expand rapidly are going to increase.”
