GALLUP – As snowpack across the western United States continues to decline under warmer winter conditions, water managers are increasingly focused on snow drought, a condition in which reduced or prematurely melting snowpack limits water supplies long before traditional drought impacts appear.
The National Integrated Drought Information System and NOAA’s Drought.gov website explain that mountain snowpacks store water through winter and release it slowly in spring and summer, much like a reservoir. This storage and timed release are critical for water supplies, and a lack of snowpack or earlier melt complicates drought planning and water management.
In northwestern New Mexico, those dynamics are closely watched by the city of Farmington, which depends almost entirely on surface water from the Animas River and snowpack in Southern Colorado.
Farmington Mayor Nate Duckett said the city closely tracks snow conditions in the San Juan Mountains each winter.
“You know, every year at this time of year, we are always nervous in tracking what that snowpack looks like in Southern Colorado, specifically for us, the Animas River Valley,” Duckett said. “I think right now we’re around 50% of average, which is a little concerning.”
Snow drought can occur even when precipitation is near normal, as warmer temperatures cause more moisture to fall as rain instead of snow and melt snowpack earlier. That reduces snow water equivalent – the amount of water stored in snow – leading to lower spring runoff and diminished summer flows.
Duckett said Farmington plans to reassess conditions later in the winter, noting that snowfall patterns have shifted over time.
“We anticipate some precipitation, as has been typical in what we’ve seen over the last decade,” he said. “It seems like the snowfall is coming later into the winter season.”
Despite the uncertainty, Duckett said the city is not facing an immediate water shortage. Farmington maintains significant storage capacity at Lake Farmington, its primary municipal reservoir.
“We have ample water supply and we’ve got 7,400 acre‑feet of water in our reservoir at Lake Farmington,” Duckett said. “It’s 2.42 billion gallons of storage, which during a peak, if it was a peak use, that’s over three months worth of water that we have there.”
Peak summer demand can reach up to 18 million gallons per day, driven largely by outdoor irrigation. Duckett pointed to 2018, when parts of the Animas River ran dry, as a reminder of both vulnerability and resilience.
“In 2018, because the river ran dry, was a little bit concerning, but we made it through that,” he said. “I believe the community came together in a very thoughtful way to ensure that people were doing the right things in their home to minimize that.”
To prepare for future shortages, the city has invested in infrastructure improvements, including dredging sediment ponds to increase reservoir capacity and pursuing funding to raise the spillway at Lake Farmington.
“We are in the midst of getting funding for raising the spillway of the dam at our reservoir that will increase by another 30 days of water storage,” Duckett said. “There’s also a long‑term study to determine whether or not we can actually raise the level of the dam by 20 to 25 feet and potentially add 75% more capacity to that water source.”
Farmington also holds water stored at Lake Nighthorse near Durango through regional agreements.
“We do have a number of acre‑feet that are stored in Lake Nighthorse that if there was a situation where that water had to be released, it could be released,” Duckett said.
As winter progresses, Duckett said the city is preparing an education‑focused conservation campaign, with restrictions only if conditions worsen.
“What we’ll start doing is kind of an education campaign for folks just to understand the need for water efficiency in their homes,” he said. “If we were to move toward something that required water restrictions, it would be similar to what we did in 2018. It would be a phased approach, heavy with education and marketing.”
Early conservation stages typically aim for a 10% reduction in water use and rely primarily on voluntary compliance.
“Typically we’re asking them to voluntarily do these things,” Duckett said. “It’s not until later stages that there becomes consequences for not doing that.”
National climate researchers warn that snow drought is likely to become more frequent as warming temperatures push snowlines higher and shorten snow seasons, particularly in mid‑ and low‑elevation basins.
Duckett said community cooperation remains central to Farmington’s ability to manage uncertain water years.
“If it comes to a point where those water restrictions go into place, we would just simply ask that the community come together, as we have in the past,” he said. “When we do these things, it takes all of us doing our part.”
As snowpack levels remain below average, city officials said they will continue monitoring conditions and rely on storage, planning and conservation to carry Farmington through an increasingly unpredictable water future.
Duckett said a water report will become available soon.
