Editor’s note: The Journal will be covering the storm this weekend in mountainous regions, Dolores and Cortez. If you have photos to share please send them to news@the-journal.com, or share them with our Facebook and please include in the share the time and place.
National Weather Service forecasters have increased rainfall projections and added a low chance of severe storms across Southwest Colorado this weekend, as tropical moisture from Hurricane Priscilla continues moving north.
Between Friday and Saturday, widespread rain is persisting across the region, projected to bring 1 to 2 inches in valley areas, such as Cortez, and up to 4 inches in higher terrain areas in the San Juan National Forest, including places near Dolores and Rico. The Flood Watch is lasting until 6 a.m. Sunday.
In the past 24 hours, rain gauges across Montezuma County and the surrounding high country have recorded steady precipitation, with a half-inch falling in Dolores and 0.33 inch measured in parts of Cortez along the stretches of U.S. Highway 160/491.
Mancos saw roughly 0.57 inches so far, while higher-elevation areas of the San Juan National Forest received heavier rainfall – including up to an inch near the La Plata Mountains and nearly 2 inches in Hesperus, according to preliminary data provided by National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Meteorologist Brianna Bealo with the Grand Junction NWS office said the latest model guidance shows “not a catastrophic, but unusual system” capable of producing isolated strong thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 2% chance of tornadoes, 5% chance of large hail or damaging winds and 20-40% chance of heavy rains across the Four Corners region occurring from noon to 8 p.m. Saturday.
“The low chance of severe threats means an increased likelihood of more general thunderstorms – including gusty winds, small hail and lightning,” Bealo said.
Forecasters expect a brief lull in rain Saturday morning, which could allow sunshine to heat the moist tropical air – a setup that may trigger stronger afternoon storms between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. Bealo said the Storm Prediction Center will continue to update its assessments.
Local officials and forecasters warned this weekend of flooding and debris on mountain passes.
Montezuma County Sheriff Steve Nowlin said areas along Colorado Highway 145 and near the town of Dolores remain vulnerable to runoff and falling rocks, though the Dolores River is running well below flood stage. Lightning is the most important hazard for outdoor recreation.
As of Friday evening, the river in Dolores measured 2.29 feet, or about 63 cubic feet per second, well below the 8-foot flood stage and the 7-foot “action” threshold where monitoring typically begins.
Forecast models from the NOAA show the river climbing to about 4.5 feet late Saturday before gradually receding through next week.
Residents are urged to monitor forecasts at weather.gov/gjt, sign up for Everbridge emergency alerts through Montezuma County, and avoid flooded or debris-covered roads.
Read The Journal’s Thursday story for a full breakdown of the forecast and safety tips.
