Away with the rain. Here comes the cold.
A freeze warning is in effect for Montezuma County tonight, with temperatures expected to drop to between 25-30 degrees.
The weather front will bring cold and dry conditions – factors that, combined with reduced cloud cover, allow more heat to escape into the night. The warning urges residents to protect tender outdoor plants.
National Weather Service forecasters warned Thursday that the freeze could harm or kill sensitive crops and vegetation and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing lines.
Jim Andrus, a weather service spotter based in Cortez, said temperatures dipped to 37 degrees Thursday morning. Looking ahead, he expects daytime highs to reach the low to mid-60s next week, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s. Andrus called it “typical mid-October weather.”
The cooler, drier pattern is a shift after last week’s tropical rain, when Cortez picked up nearly a month’s worth of precipitation in just a few days – something Andrus called “remarkable for our desert climate.”
“It’s time to shut down and winterize our swamp coolers and put sprinklers to bed as grass won’t grow much with our days getting shorter rapidly,” Andrus said.
The first freeze typically occurs around Sept. 30 in Cortez, so NWS meteorologist Gillian Felton noted the timing of Thursday’s event was nothing out of the ordinary. There’s a chance some areas have already hit 32 degrees briefly overnight, but the freeze warning indicates more widespread conditions below 32 degrees for three hours or more.
Felton discussed a potential new system expected early next week, likely around Monday, associated with a trough moving in from the northwest. A trough is an area of low atmospheric pressure, a dip in pressure essentially, that causes weather changes, such as high winds, rain, clouds or snow.
“It doesn’t look as significant as what we just had before. There won’t be as much moisture with this system,” Felton said.
However, she emphasized low forecast confidence and model disagreement about its exact strength and impact. Current models suggest limited moisture and minimal impact south of the Four Corners region.
Forecasters are calling for the weekend to be dry and pleasant, with temperatures in the low to mid-60s across the Four Corners region. Felton said both Saturday and Sunday should be warmer and clear, making for comfortable outdoor weather.
