Upon weeks of heat and exceptional dryness, Montezuma County is seeing a familiar midsummer swing as moisture returns with daily chances for rain.
The forecast offers a welcome reprieve for the Ferris Fire suppression effort, though gusty winds or lightning may introduce new fire spots, according to Ferris Fire Information officials.
National Weather Service meteorologist Kris Sanders said the forecast indicates a transition into a monsoonal pattern, characterized by scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms nearly every afternoon through the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to hover in the low 90s and decrease later through the week to upper and mid-80s by the weekend.
Showers and storms are expected to develop over high terrain each afternoon before moving off. The chances of precipitation rise throughout the weekend, with Sanders saying daily percentages increase from 60% Wednesday to 80% by Friday for Cortez.
“In general with thunderstorms, these storms can produce gusty winds or brief, heavy rainfall and small hail in some cases, especially as we get into later in this week where moisture increases,” Sanders said.
Sanders said it’s difficult for forecasters to say how much rain will come. This is due to showers being scattered in nature. However, he said forecasters are predicting anywhere from a quarter-inch to an inch in some places.
Crews working on the roughly 64,800-acre Ferris Fire receive daily updates from the camp’s on-site meteorologist.
According to fire officials, cooler weather, increasing humidity and showers are likely to moderate fire behavior.
California Team 7 spokeswoman Rita Frederick said the shift in weather gives firefighters additional time to target areas more aggressively while it’s raining.
“We have been dumping buckets of water, and this is a natural big bucket of water,” she said.
Fire to the northeast received rain early this week. While other areas, such as the Bradfield campsite and near Cahone to the southwest, received very little.
Frederick said it wasn’t a huge concern because there’s been success in establishing a containment line already.
Containment for the entire Ferris Fire perimeter is 29%. Lighting is prone to start wildfires and a storm’s fast winds can grow them, so crew safety continues to be a top priority, Frederick said.
“Especially if crews are mopping up areas where trees have been burned, they could be more likely to see trees falling,” she said. “Tactics at least have not changed drastically, just because the rain has been so scattered.”
Frederick added that plans shift or crews are called to stand down if critical weather or flooding occurs. Officials stated in a Ferris Fire news release that despite weather-prone hazards, the forecast is in more favor of wildfire reduction.
Weather data for June, as prepared for the National Weather Service by local weather spotter Jim Andrus, provides a view of persistent dryness.
Andrus said even for a typically dry month, June captured far below normal for rainfall, measuring 0.12 inches compared to the monthly average of 0.37.
May’s traces of rain left the landscape parched.
According to Andrus’ report, the year-to-date precipitation level amounts to a little more than three inches in Cortez, or 67% of the average rainfall expected by this time of the year. He said dry months put all of Colorado west of the Continental Divide into drought ranging from severe to extreme to exceptional.
As this month begins the monsoon stretch through September, the 30-day outlook predicts an irregular start. The 90-day weather outlook, which is closer to capturing the heart of monsoon season, is more optimistic for rain.
“Given the persistence of drought we are experiencing, even if future precipitation forecasts are more optimistic, this skeptical meteorologist still lives by this statement: I'll believe it when I measure it,” Andrus said.
awatson@the-journal.com
