DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The ceasefire in the Iran war hangs in the balance as Pakistan's capital stands prepared for possible new talks between Tehran and Washington.
The two-week ceasefire was set to expire Wednesday. Neither the U.S. nor Iran have publicly confirmed timing of any new talks or plans to extend the ceasefire, but sudden changes have been the norm in the lead-up to past rounds of talks.
Here’s what to know about where the ceasefire stands, the possible talks in Pakistan and other issues surrounding the war:
Talks floated for Wednesday
Two regional officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the United States and Iran have signaled they will hold a new round of talks. Pakistan-led mediators received confirmation that top negotiators, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are expected to arrive in Islamabad early Wednesday to lead their teams, the officials told The Associated Press.
As of Tuesday evening, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Iran had not formally confirmed it would participate in more talks, noting the looming deadline.
“An Iranian decision to attend the talks before the end of the two-week ceasefire is critical,” he said in a post on X.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tuesday there was ‘no final decision’ on whether to attend ceasefire talks. The spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, told state TV that the lack of a decision was not due to “indecisiveness,” but rather because of “contradictory messages" and “unacceptable actions” from the Americans.
The White House said Vance was still in Washington, and gave no word on whether he would be traveling to Pakistan.
Serious challenges face any upcoming talks, about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program and other issues. Meanwhile, Iran targeted ships in the strait over the weekend. The U.S. also attacked and boarded one Iranian vessel that tried to outrun the American naval blockade in the strait — signaling that the situation remains volatile and a resumption of the war isn't out of the question.
A fragile ceasefire risks showing cracks
The current truce between Iran, Israel and the United States began April 8 after multiple deadlines posed by U.S. President Donald Trump that threatened Iran’s very “civilization” at one point.
Iranian attacks targeted Gulf Arab states and Israel after it had started. Another mysterious attack struck an Iranian oil refinery on an island as well that afternoon. However, the ceasefire has broadly held.
An earlier round of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. was held in Pakistan from April 11 into the early morning the following day. Vance took part in the highest-level talks between America and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended without an agreement.
Since this weekend, authorities in Islamabad have made preparations similar to those that accompanied the first talks, suggesting another round loomed. The White House has said that Vance would be returning to Islamabad for a new round of talks in the coming days with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all natural gas and oil passes, remains effectively closed over Iranian attacks in the waterway. That included some attacks Saturday. There's also a fear that Iran mined a portion of the strait used by transiting ships during peacetime. Since the war, Iran reportedly has been charging as much as $2 million a vessel to allow them to pass. Opening the strait remains a key focus of negotiations and Tehran's strongest leverage against Washington, particularly as countries around the world have begun rationing energy and warning of shortages of jet fuel. The United States, meanwhile, has begun blocking ships from Iranian ports. The U.S. Navy attacked an Iranian container ship that tried to run through the U.S. blockade this weekend, with Marines rappelling onto it from helicopters.
Iran's nuclear stockpile remains in country
All of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains in the country, likely entombed at enrichment sites bombed by the U.S. during a 12-day war last June. Iran hasn’t enriched since then but maintains it has the right to do so for peaceful purposes and denies seeking nuclear weapons. Trump, along with Israel, has called for Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program and give up its stockpile. Iran rejected that in its 10-point proposal for ending the war.
__ AP reporters Sam Metz in Ramallah, West Bank, Samy Magdy in Cairo and Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed reporting.
