This week across Montezuma County, it may feel more like May – a time for gardening, exercise or lounging outdoors – than March.
A weather system moving through the Southwest is bringing sun and unseasonable warmth, with the potential for record highs.
The National Weather Service projects afternoon temperatures in Cortez and Dolores will reach the low 80s for the rest of the week, roughly 25 to 30 degrees above normal for mid-March. The warm spell is driven by a strong high-pressure system building over the Southwest, which allows warm, dry air to settle over the region while blocking cooler air from moving in.
“With high pressure, it’s not always the most exciting weather pattern to discuss but it is definitely anomalously warm. Anytime there’s 20 degrees over normal, you will get close to the record,” said Lucas Boyer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
The pattern is expected to raise temperatures and keep humidity low. Fire danger remains limited for now because the region is still in early spring, but officials urged vigilance as conditions trend drier heading into the warm season.
Fire mitigation work by government agencies is already underway.
The warmest day on record for the area was 78 degrees on March 20, 2004. The National Weather Service forecasts rising temperatures through Saturday, with highs in Cortez expected to reach 83 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Some afternoon breezes may develop, Boyer said, with wind speeds between 10 and 20 mph. Those winds are not expected to be unusual or significant.
Wildfire risk is not critically high at the moment despite lower humidity and some wind, Boyer said. But with patchy winds expected Saturday, officials are monitoring conditions closely.
“We’re still in winter fuels conditions,” he said. “We are still seeing spring green up taking place, but it’s always a concern when we have these dry conditions that we turn an eye toward critical fire weather.”
Firefighters from the San Juan Hotshots, Los Pinos Fire District and other San Juan National Forest crews are working to contain a 1.5-acre fire on the north side of Hermosa and west of U.S. Highway 550.
The fire ignited Monday and has not grown, officials said. The cause remains under investigation. Bucket work is being handled by a Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control Black Hawk helicopter because of rugged, steep terrain and Gambel oak and ponderosa pine.
“Firefighters are engaged in a 1.5-acre Hermosa Fire, cutting fire line and extinguishing heavy fuels and dangerous standing trees, (called snags),” the San Juan National Forest wrote in a Facebook post.
Los Pinos firefighters stayed on scene overnight. On Monday, crews created a fire line around about half the fire’s footprint, but the rest continued to burn in a drainage with limited access.
Fire preparation work continues across federal agencies.
Derek Padilla, field manager with the Bureau of Land Management, said conditions are favorable for prescribed burning, which is beginning one to two months earlier than usual. Last year, the agency started this work in April.
Prescribed burns may reduce hazardous fuels, improve habitat for wild animals, and restore land health. Nearby communities benefit from prescribed burning because they may experience less impact from future, larger wildfires, such as smoke-induced health concerns.
Starting this week, mitigation and prescribed burns are planned on about 2,280 acres in Southwest Colorado, including locations in San Miguel, Dolores and La Plata counties.
“We have commenced the burn near Rabbit Mountain in Durango,” Padilla said. “Normally, we wouldn’t be doing these burns until April or May, but because of the dry conditions we are taking advantage of that early.”
Rabbit Mountain is south of County Road 502 and about five miles northeast of Bayfield. Additional prescribed burns are planned in the Dawson area of Dolores County, south of Disappointment Valley and about 17 miles northeast of Dove Creek.
Padilla said burn protocols are science-based and factor in temperature, wind, relative humidity and fuel moisture, which are currently showing “great conditions.”
Boyer said Climate Prediction Center data indicates continued warmth in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting the high-pressure pattern may persist through the end of March.
“Basically all of Western Colorado and eastern Utah is an above-normal temperature outlook for the next 14 days,” he said.
He said the trend is not unusual for this time of year but is arriving earlier and more intensely than normal following an already warm winter.
awatson@the‑journal.com
