A pair of mild storms with light moisture and warm air are forecast to arrive this week in Southwest Colorado.
Any moisture – rain or snow – will be welcome during this unusually dry winter.
Kate Abbott, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said a warm storm system will move into the Four Corners from the southwest Wednesday, followed by a slightly colder system Friday.
“So unfortunately, especially early on this week as the first punch of the system rolls in Wednesday, it’s looking like it will be rather warm, even up in the mountains,” she said. “So snowfall will be mostly confined to the nighttime hours when it’s a little bit cooler.”
Abbott said snow levels will hover mostly around 9,000 feet in elevation, with rain falling below that. On Friday, temperatures will be slightly colder, with snow favoring more low-lying areas, but still accompanied by above-average daytime temperatures and limited chances for snowfall.
“We do see slightly cooler temperatures come Friday, but we’re still well above seasonal normal during the day, so again, we’ll look to that overnight period for some of the better snowfall chances,” she said. “It doesn’t look like the Friday system is much to write home about.”
Colorado is facing one of its driest winters on record, with nearly record-low snowpack statewide. The snowpack is not as bad as in 1990 and 2018, two of the lowest snow years on record, according to Natural Resource Conservation Service data.
Abbott said even a small system with rain will help, because it helps saturate soils.
“We look at a mixture of snowpack and soil moisture content when we talk about how productive a winter is,” Abbott said.
The low snowpack has created new hazards for backcountry recreators. On Saturday, a man backcountry skiing in San Juan County struck a piece of wire strung between two trees – something that normally would have been covered by snow this time of year – requiring a trip to the hospital, according to a Silverton Mountain Rescue Facebook post.
“We write to warn our followers and friends on the mountain that debris, posts, wires, and other trash is far more exposed this year than other years. Be safe and keep a keen eye out for things other than rocks and trunks,” the post said. “Danger looks different every year, and low avalanche risk does not equal low risk overall.”
Abbott said there is still plenty of time for the snowpack to catch up.
“We still do have a decent chunk of winter left here,” she said. “It’s not over for us quite yet, but we do need to start adding to that snowpack, even if it’s just a little bit at a time.”
sedmondson@durangoherald.com
