Snow water to fill a reservoir is akin to having money in the bank, says local weather spotter Jim Andrus.
With mountain snow water equivalents at roughly half normal, runoff banked in McPhee Reservoir is also running well below average.
Andrus says rain and snow are becoming rare resources in Cortez and Montezuma County.
“This lack of precipitation is making the countryside pretty dry and vulnerable to fire, so residents need to be very careful with fire outdoors,” Andrus said.
The veteran National Weather Service observer calls historical data comparisons “exceptional” and “alarming,” saying it’s the worst start to any winter season he has witnessed since 1997.
Potential impacts range from reduced water deliveries in spring and summer to effects on agriculture and a local economy reliant on tourism, impacts some areas are already discussing.
The current dry season resembles a recent winter when snowfall totaled just eight inches for the season, Andrus notes. So far, his calculations show 4.6 inches this winter, about 25% of the normal December and January average of roughly 18.7 inches.
Cortez recorded 0.44 inches of precipitation in December, only 49% of the monthly average of 0.89 inches. The lack of moisture has left vegetation and the landscape extremely dry as snowfall lags.
“Only three storms in the last two months dumped their precipitation mostly as rain thanks to prolonged warm weather created by persistent warm ridges of high pressure over the Southwest,” Andrus said.
A warmer December only compounded conditions. According to his monthly report, December’s warmest day was a remarkable 67 degrees Dec. 23, while the coldest night dropped to 10 degrees.
“December indeed was overly warm with 19 daily highs in the 50s and 60s during the middle of the month,” Andrus wrote in the report.
Cortez typically averages 8 inches of snow for January, the snowiest month of the year.
National Weather Service’s seven-day outlook calls for snow possibilities Friday morning and chances for snow or rain through the evening. Some snow is forecast for Saturday, though the daily high is expected to reach 46 degrees.
“There’s the word ‘slight,’ which doesn’t offer much hope for significant snow or rain,” Andrus said, emphasizing a low chance of meeting the area’s winter snowfall average of 33.4 inches.
The 30-day weather outlook still calls for above-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation at best, he said. The outlook for 90 days is even more pessimistic with drier conditions and above-normal temperatures.
“A strong La Nina climate episode in the Northern Hemisphere continues to manifest its classic climate pattern across the western U.S., maintaining dry weather in the Southwest and redirecting wet weather to the Pacific Northwest,” Andrus said.
