After a week of unseasonably warm weather, the Four Corners region may see a sharp decline in temperatures from Sunday into Monday, with up to a foot of snow expected in the high country – a shift that commuters, campers and hunters may want to account for.
National Weather Service meteorologist Chris Sanders said the San Juan Mountains could get between 6 to 12 inches of snow in areas above 10,000 feet beginning Sunday, with 12 inches possible at the highest elevations.
In describing a roughly 36-hour event, Sanders noted some potential for snow in areas around 7,500 to 8,000 feet, with 1 to 2 inches expected, and little to no accumulation in valleys.
Aside from high-country flurries, the region can anticipate a warmer weekend with stretches of cloudy skies and consistent rain toward the end. The weather event stems from a stronger low-pressure system off Southern California’s coast that’s keeping unseasonably warm air flowing southwest and pulling in moisture from the Pacific.
Temperatures from Thursday through Saturday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs in the low 60s and increasing clouds from the Californian moisture system, Sanders said.
Rain could begin as early as Saturday night, but Sunday remains the more likely start date, according to forecasters. Rain amounts along U.S. Highway 160 could range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches, with up to 1 inch of rain or snow runoff in higher-elevated areas. Sanders said flooding is not expected but forecasters will monitor for embedded thunderstorms.
“Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening, we could have some embedded thunderstorms in there, but nothing that's going to cause flooding issues,” he said. “You’re going to have some snow on some high passes Sunday afternoon and Sunday night into Monday morning that could impact travel.”
Sanders added that warm ground temperatures could limit major road impacts. Temperatures will cool noticeably with the system’s arrival.
“It’s been so warm. The pavement is warm, the ground is warm, so it’s hard to predict how bad the roads will get,” he said. “So yeah, the first system kind of sets the stage, cools things down a bit.”
Temperatures are expected to be 10 degrees cooler Sunday, and an additional 5 to 10 degrees cooler Monday, bringing highs in the valleys into the upper 40s – near or slightly below seasonal averages.
Overnight lows Monday morning are expected to be around freezing or in the upper 20s, with colder overnights in the lower 20s by the middle of next week.
“There is another system potentially coming in midweek which could bring snow to lower elevations,” Sanders added. “As far as pinning that down, it's hard to say.”
