LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) — Bolivians voted on Sunday in an unprecedented presidential runoff between two conservative, capitalist candidates, ushering in a new political era after 20 years of almost continuous rule by the Movement Toward Socialism party.
The race is in a dead heat as voters, looking for a leader to lift them out of their country’s worst economic crisis in decades, choose between former right-wing President Jorge “Tuto" Quiroga and centrist Sen. Rodrigo Paz.
Since 2023, the Andean nation has been crippled by a shortage of U.S. dollars that has locked Bolivians out of their own savings and hampered imports. Year-on-year inflation soared to 23% last month, the highest rate since 1991. Fuel shortages paralyze the country, with motorists often waiting days in line to fill up their tanks.
Quiroga and Paz have vowed to break with the budget-busting populism that dominated Bolivia under the Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party founded by Evo Morales, a charismatic coca growers’ union leader who became Bolivia’s first Indigenous president in 2006.
“We are closing one cycle and opening another,” Paz told supporters as he cast his ballot in his hometown of Tarija, alongside his father, former President Jaime Paz Zamora.
Some voters said they felt energized by the promise of change. Lines snaked outside many polling stations.
"Since 2005 we haven't had any real options, so this is exciting for me,” said high school teacher Carlos Flores, 41, who was waiting to vote for Paz.
Others said they had lost faith in politics itself. Around 10% of voters remained undecided heading into the runoff, according to polls, with many Bolivians wary of a lurch toward privatization and austerity but also incensed at their left-wing government's profligate spending and corruption.
“Every candidate promises and promises, but when they get to power, they forget about the people,” said Javier Quisbert, 40, an unemployed bricklayer who emerged from a polling station Sunday saying that he spoiled his ballot just to avoid a punitive fine. Voting is compulsory for Bolivia’s nearly 8 million eligible voters.
Riven by internal divisions and battered by public anger over the economic crisis, MAS suffered a historic defeat in the Aug. 17 elections that propelled Quiroga and Paz to the runoff. Paz beat Quiroga but without enough votes to avoid a second round.
Both candidates have promised to end Bolivia’s fixed exchange rate and lure foreign investment. Among the factors that most distinguish them is how far and fast they propose pushing their reforms.
“We have the opportunity to change Bolivia,” Quiroga said, mobbed by supporters and journalists as he voted in an affluent area of Bolivia's capital, La Paz. “Bolivia will be grateful.”
Differing approaches to change
Quiroga wants to get dollars flowing into Bolivia immediately with a big rescue package from the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral lenders.
That would demand savage cuts in state spending, such as slashing fuel subsidies, shrinking the public payroll and cutting the state out of Bolivia’s gas and mining businesses. He has run for president three times before but never made it this far.
“What's interesting is that even though Quiroga puts very drastic measures on the table, he has considerable support,” said Gustavo Flores-Macías, dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland. “It shows that a good share of Bolivians are just so tired of the crisis, the currency difficulties, fuel shortages, that they're willing to support someone who says there will be pain before things get better."
Paz favors a more cautious approach. He says he’ll phase out fuel subsidies gradually and provide MAS-style social protections like cash handouts to cushion the blow.
Shunning the IMF — an organization viewed with contempt in Bolivia during the nearly two decades of left-wing rule — Paz promises to scrape together dollars by legalizing Bolivia’s black market and fighting corruption.
Most merchants and shop owners interviewed across La Paz, their thumbs marked with ink after voting, said they supported Paz and and his popular running mate Edman Lara for their proposals to support the poor.
“I want change, I want the bonuses and aid they've promised us to become a reality,” said Yola Rojas, a 67-year-old food vendor sitting in her husband's delivery truck waiting for fuel so he could vote without losing his place in line.
Battle of optics
Although Paz spent over two decades in politics as a lawmaker and mayor, he was never a nationally prominent figure until his shock victory in August with the message of “ capitalism for all." He surprised everyone by picking ex-police Capt. Lara as his running mate, a political unknown with humble origins who testified to the campaign's focus on the middle class.
Fired from the police force in 2023 for denouncing corruption in viral TikTok videos, Lara attracted former members of MAS who had supported Morales' subsidies and public works but soured on his taxes and regulation.
When asked who they chose on Sunday, some Bolivians said they voted for Lara as if he were at the top of the ticket.
“Lara is the one acting more like a president than Paz. Many of us think Lara would end up running the country," said Wendy Cornejo, 28, a former Morales supporter selling crackers in downtown La Paz, referring to Lara's impassioned speeches and promises of higher pensions that Paz later walked back. “I guess that's weird, if they don't agree with each other.”
Crisscrossing cities and rural communities to throw beer-soaked, no-frills events, Paz and Lara sought to paint Quiro as an emblem of Bolivia’s out-of-touch political establishment. Quiroga briefly served as president from 2001-2002, after his predecessor Hugo Banzer fell ill and stepped down.
But Quiroga's supporters say they would rather his professionalism than the scattershot style of Paz and Lara.
“Tuto has the political experience to bring about the change that Bolivia needs,” said Raúl Negrete, 58 after voting for Quiroga.
Vast task ahead
The next president faces a task that’s about as simple as running a marathon in Bolivia’s highlands — altitude: 4,150 meters (13,600 feet).
In the heady early days of Morales’ tenure (2006-2019), a boom in natural gas exports underwrote the state’s unbridled spending. Now, gas exploration and production has collapsed. But Bolivia continues to splurge to keep fuel practically free, paying $2 billion last year on the subsidies.
Previous attempts to lift the subsidies didn't go well: Morales’ effort in 2011 lasted less than a week as mass protests engulfed the country.
Public transportation unions have already threatened to ignite unrest if fuel subsidies are eliminated.
Result would resonate across the region
The end of MAS after 20 years of hegemony triggers a major economic and geopolitical realignment that could reverberate across the continent. Both candidates say they’ll welcome foreign investment and encourage private enterprise in Bolivia, which has the world’s greatest lithium resources.
It also means a shift away from Bolivia’s current allies, China and Russia, and toward the United States after decades of antipathy toward the West. Both Quiroga and Paz flew to Washington to meet with IMF and Trump administration officials last month.
“Both candidates running in the runoff election want strong and better relations with the United States, so that’s another transformative opportunity,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a news conference Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Argentine President Javier Milei, a close ally, to the White House.
