Editor’s note: The Journal will be covering the storm this weekend in mountainous regions, Dolores and Cortez. If you have photos to share please send them to news@the-journal.com, or share them with our Facebook and please include in the share the time and place.
Rain is projected to persist across Southwest Colorado through Friday and Saturday, bringing some risk of local flooding in low-lying areas, areas with burn scars or mountain highway passes.
It’s not an extreme or catastrophic event, according to National Weather Service forecasters, but residents or drivers should stay weather alert – especially if heading to the mountains, driving at night or finding themselves in flood-prone areas.
National Weather Service meteorologist Gillian Felton described the storm as “a good amount of rain over a longer time period,” saying it’s not expected to be extreme but may bring flooding, and therefore vulnerability, to tricky places.
“It looks consistent. It’s going to be a good amount of rainfall over the next two or three days, so staying weather-aware is very important,” Felton said.
As of Thursday evening, the weekend weather forecast remains in line with what NWS issued in the Flood Watch, which begins Thursday and is lasting through Saturday afternoon.
The most-persistent rain occurs Friday and Saturday, at 90% and 100% probabilities, with chances of precipitation dropping quickly late Saturday into Sunday, when a cold front moves through. Forecast totals are roughly three-quarters of an inch to 2 inches of rain in valley locations like Cortez, with 2 to 3 inches possible in the high country, according to Felton.
The storm’s main driver is moisture drawn from Hurricane Priscilla off Mexico’s Pacific coast, funneled north between a high-pressure system over Texas and a low-pressure system near the Pacific Northwest. This outcome is a warm, moisture-rich and tropical air mass that’s more common in midsummer than early October.
NWS forecasters say the approaching storm could deliver rain above what this region sees on a monthly average in fall – all in just about two days.
Experts say it raises potential for flash flooding across the higher-terrain San Juan National Forest and surrounding waterways, canyons and foothills.
“The mountains could get more, because the air lifts and cools as it crosses the peaks, dumping extra rain there,” said Jim Andrus, the longtime National Weather Service spotter based in Cortez.
Therefore, steep terrain along Colorado Highway 145 – specifically between Dolores and Rico – or along U.S. Highway 160 could see runoff or rocks sliding, Andrus said.
This is because rain may loosen soil and rock sitting on steeper slopes, which also has potential to block and slow traffic in high-country passes. Drivers on Lizard Head Pass and other mountain passes may encounter loose debris and boulders on roadways.
Montezuma County Sheriff Steve Nowlin said several areas across the county could see flooding, particularly in the high country along Colorado 145’s main corridor.
“The town of Dolores is also a concern – water comes in from three different directions there, and we’ve seen flooding before, including about a month and a half ago when a storm caused standing water and mudslides on 145,” Nowlin said.
While low-lying roads and San Juan access routes could temporarily flood if heavy rain develops, Nowlin said, the Dolores River is not expected to rise.
“We’ve been in a drought all summer,” he said. “If any flooding occurs, it will likely be short-lived.”
The Dolores River is running well below normal for this time of year – meaning streamflow is relatively low and stable. Measured at the U.S. Geological Survey gauge in the town of Dolores, the river is running low at about 55.8 cubic feet per second, roughly half what’s typical for early October. Its height is 2.24 feet, well below the 8-foot flood stage, meaning the river would need to rise more than 5½ feet to reach a flood-level stage.
In fact, Andrus said, rainfall across the upper river watershed could raise river levels and improve water storage with the area’s reservoir.
“If storms hit right over the watershed, you could expect river levels to rise,” he said.
Despite the hazards, Andrus said the moisture will be welcome after a dry summer and dry start to fall.
Although the weekend’s rain will fall mostly as steady, tropical-style showers, NWS’s Felton said thunderstorms may develop inside the broader, storm-system pockets.
“This will be more widespread rainfall with embedded stronger thunderstorms,” she said, adding that lightning was already observed in the region Thursday morning.
“It’s certainly a possibility … not like those days when we have primarily strong thunderstorms but still enough to bring localized, heavier rainfall rates and lightning,” she said.
Felton also cautioned that areas with burn scars are especially vulnerable to flooding.
“With the burn scars, the soil changes so it becomes more hydrophobic,” she said. “That means it repels water instead of absorbing it, so there is an increased risk of flooding around burn scars when we’re getting rain – especially heavier rainfall.”
The city of Cortez is built on a hill, with its highest point around Main and Market streets downtown. Therefore, because of the elevation gradient, Andrus said, some lower intersections and drainage dips in the city can collect standing water during hard rains – especially if stormwater infrastructure can’t keep up.
“There’s a low spot on Fifth Street, just east of Arby’s between South Broadway and South Third Street,” he said. “That ditch can carry a lot of water from city streets, and sometimes you’ll see water standing there after heavy storms.”
He said the lowest stretch of U.S. 491 and U.S. 160 south of Towaoc also floods periodically as runoff gathers from surrounding desert terrain.
Montezuma County Emergency Manager Vicki Shaffer said people living in flood-prone areas – including along Road G and in neighborhoods downhill from recent burn scars near Stoner Mesa – should remain especially cautious.
Drivers should use caution this weekend, especially at night, when standing water or debris may be hard to see.
“After dark, that would be the riskiest time for driving because you can’t see the roads very well beyond your headlights,” Andrus said.
The sheriff urged drivers to slow down in wet conditions, watch out for standing water and fallen rocks and use caution on mountain highways where debris can block lanes.
“Excessive speed and bad passes have already caused serious and fatal crashes this year on 145,” Nowlin said.
Nowlin added that any asphalt road, where water is standing, could lead to hydroplaning.
Nowlin also cautioned residents to take precautions during lightning. “If lightning develops, stay away from trees and metal,” he said. “Find a low, open area – and for hunters, that means putting down your firearm, because metal attracts lightning.”
- Stay weather-aware: National Weather Service meteorologist Jillian Felton advised residents to monitor updated forecasts at weather.gov/gjt and to stay alert for changing conditions or new flood alerts through Saturday.
- Watch low spots and flood-prone roads: Jim Andrus, local weather spotter, said Cortez’s storm drains can back up in low-lying intersections, such as Fifth Street near South Broadway. Drivers should avoid standing water.
- Look out debris, falling rock and mudslides in the mountains: Drivers on Colorado Highway 145, U.S. Highway 160, and other mountain passes, such as Lizard Head Pass, could encounter rocks, boulders or mud on roadways after heavy rainfall. Areas like Dunlap Hill, on County Road 31 North of Dolores, and along the 145 corridor are susceptible to sliding and falling rocks.
- Avoid lightning exposure: Nowlin urged hunters, hikers and campers to stay out of open areas and away from trees or metal objects during storms. Wait 30 minutes after thunder before resuming outdoor activity.
- Dress and pack for changing conditions: Heavy rain could last for hours, and snow is possible at higher elevations.
Shaffer, the county’s emergency manager, said it’s important to be aware of conditions and be prepared to respond if flooding develops.
- Report flooded or blocked roads to the Montezuma County Sheriff’s dispatch at (970) 565-8454.
- Sign up for Everbridge emergency alerts by getting the information through the county’s website to receive road closure and safety updates in real time.
NWS meteorologist Jillian Felton said residents can get the latest forecast updates by visiting https://www.weather.gov.
